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Testing a statistical forecasting model of electric energy consumption for two regions in the Czech Republic
Rajdl, Kamil ; Farda, Aleš ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel
Precise forecasting of electric energy consumption is of great importance for the electric power industry. It helps system operators optimally schedule and control power systems, and even slight improvements in prediction accuracy might yield large savings or profits. For these reasons, many forecasting models based on various principles have been developed and studied. Because of energy consumption’s strong dependence on weather conditions, such models often utilize outputs from numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we present and analyse a statistical model for forecasting hourly electrical energy consumption by customers of E.ON Energie, a.s. in two regions of the Czech Republic. The aim of this model is to create hourly predictions up to several days in advance. The model uses hourly data of consumed energy from 2011–2014 and corresponding predictions of temperature and cloudiness provided by the ALADIN/ CZ model. The statistical model is based on a regression analysis applied to appropriate data samples and supplemented by several optional post-processing methods. Specifically, we use a robust linear regression algorithm to identify energy consumption’s dependence on temperature, the meteorological variable with the largest influence on consumption. Our post-processing methods focused on removing prediction bias resulting from economic situations (represented by the goss domestic product, GDP) and sudden temperature changes. We analysed the presented model from the point of view of the hourly predictions’ accuracy for 2013 and 2014. Accuracy was primarily measured by mean absolute error. It was evaluated for individual months, and the effects of individual parts of the model on accuracy value are shown. Introduction
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Výzkum metod a rozvoj předpovědních modelů pro potřeby povodňové ochrany: Rozvoj a aplikace hydrologických modelů na předpovědních centrech ČHMÚ
Český hydrometeorologický ústav, Praha ; Březková, Lucie ; Soukalová, Eva ; Dydowiczová, Dana ; Younis, Jalal Hasan ; Kotek, Radovan ; Šrejber, Jan ; Boříková, Lenka ; Kopeček, Pavel ; Vaclík, Luboš ; Vlasák, Tomáš ; Lett, Petr ; Křovák, Michal ; Hančarová, Eugenie ; Řičicová, Pavla
Předpovědní model pro povodí toků horního Labe se závěrovým profilem Přelouč. Předpovědní model pro povodí Jizery a Sázavy. Předpovědní model pro povodí Vltavy po přítok do Orlíka. Předpovědní model pro povodí Berounky mezi Plzní a Berounem. Předpovědní model pro povodí Ohře po profil Louny. Předpovědní model pro povodí Opavy, Bečvy a dolní Odry. Předpovědní model Hydrog pro povodí Svitavy po soutok se Svratkou a pro povodí Svratky po stanici Židlochovice. Předpovědní model MIKE pro povodí Moravy.
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